Are we still waiting for Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson to show up?
We’re entering Year 3 since the Browns’ infamous heel turn, signing Watson to a bonkers deal amid his sexual misconduct cases in 2022. He’s played a grand total of 12 games for Cleveland and has hurt its chances as much as helped them in those outings.
The Browns aren’t ready to cut bait on Watson (nor can they, really), with the QB showing just enough glimpses of his old form to keep Cleveland on the hook. It tries to jump-start his career by hiring new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, who will utilize Watson’s mobility with plenty of RPO and movement behind the line.
Oddsmakers aren’t as optimistic about Watson or the Browns, for that matter. Cleveland is off the pace of Baltimore and Cincinnati when measured against the futures market, season-win totals, look-ahead lines, and overall AFC North pecking order.
Yet, after 11 wins and a 10-6-1 ATS finish despite five different quarterbacks in 2023, bettors can’t ignore the promise of a healthy Watson and the talent-rich Browns in 2024. What the hell are we supposed to do now?!
For better or worse, here are my NFL picks and 2024 Cleveland Browns betting preview.
Cleveland Browns odds
| Win Super Bowl | +4000 |
| Win conference | +2200 |
| Win division | +600 |
| Make playoffs | +145 |
| Over 8.5 wins | -135 |
| Under 8.5 wins | +115 |
Best futures bet: Third in AFC North (+190)
When stacked up against the Ravens and Bengals, the Browns are two victories behind in terms of win total and five games off in terms of look-ahead lines listing Cleveland as a favorite. I believe the defense will continue to anchor the team but there are more questions on offense than just Watson’s output.
Running back Nick Chubb won’t be there for the start of the season after a brutal knee injury ended his 2023. The receiving corps has an aging Amari Cooper, TE David Njoku, and ghosts of WR potential in Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore. Unless Watson awakens from his greaseball slumber, this offense isn’t going to cut it.
Cleveland Browns at a glance: Tough in the trenches
Cleveland’s foundation is solid. The offensive line is among the better blocking groups in the NFL — if it can stay healthy — and that makes life easier for Dorsey’s schemes. The defensive line is also high quality, with Myles Garrett creating chaos that trickles down to takeaways from the secondary.
What will win bets: Defense
Defense remains Cleveland’s calling card for 2024. The Browns are strong at all three levels, especially the defensive line and ESPECIALLY Garrett. Cleveland finished among the best teams in sacks and takeaways — game-changing plays that pay out at the sportsbook.
This stop unit could feast in the first third of the schedule. Beyond a Week 1 opener vs. Dallas, the Browns play Jacksonville, the N.Y. Giants, Las Vegas, and Washington in the opening five weeks — all offenses projected for the bottom half of the league in 2024. Things do get extremely tougher after this stretch but the stop unit will at least give Browns bettors a chance.
What will lose bets: Offense
As mentioned, Watson’s wishy-washy play isn’t the only thing holding the Browns’ scoring attack back. Chubb’s availability, a popgun passing game, and a new playbook to learn could put the clamps on the offense. Jerome Ford and a strong offensive line can move the chains on the ground, but if Dorsey’s passing plans can’t threaten anything beyond 10-yard looks, then it doesn’t take a defensive savant to slow down Cleveland’s calls.
Things could get really sketchy if the Browns defense fails to play up to last year’s numbers. Cleveland was susceptible against the run and gave up too many home run plays. It should also be noted that the Browns picked on some poor offenses and broken QBs along the way. The offense can’t survive a shootout.
Cleveland Browns schedule + spot bet: Scary Schedule
The Browns have the toughest schedule when you factor in 2023 win percentage, 2024 projected wins, and the hard-knock life in the AFC North. Look-ahead lines have Cleveland as a favorite in nine of 17 games and only two of those lines stray beyond -3.
In fact, 13 of the team’s 2024 spreads fall with a field goal (-3 to +3), so buckle up for close contests. Last season, Kevin Stefanski’s crew went 6-2 SU and ATS in one-score games and was 5-3 SU and ATS in games with a closing spread between -3 and +3. Those fortunes in nail-biters can quickly flip season to season, and Cleveland rated as the second luckiest team in the league last season, which means the universe demands balance in 2024.
That penance might come in the final two-thirds of the schedule as things get nuts from Week 6 onward. You have six games vs. AFC North rivals — Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh — along with playoff qualifiers Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Miami making their way onto the calendar. Even easier opponents like New Orleans and Denver come on the road.
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | vs. Dallas |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | @ Jacksonville |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | vs. New York (G) |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | @ Las Vegas |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | @ Washington |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | @ Philadelphia |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | vs. Cincinnati |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | vs. Baltimore |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | vs. Los Angeles (C) |
| 10 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | @ New Orleans |
| 12 | Thursday, November 21 | vs. Pittsburgh |
| 13 | Monday, December 2 | @ Denver |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | @ Pittsburgh |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | vs. Kansas City |
| 16 | Thursday, December 19 | @ Cincinnati |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | vs. Miami |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | @ Baltimore |
Spot bet: Week 6 @ Philadelphia (+3, 45.5)
The Week 6 trip to Philly signals that shift in schedule and will test Cleveland in a third straight road game. The team is at Las Vegas in Week 4 and at Washington in Week 5 before coming to the Linc in mid-October.
It should be noted that Cleveland does benefit from some advantageous spots as well. Week 7’s home game with the Bengals is Cincy’s second straight roadie and third in four weeks. Week 8 brings Baltimore to Cleveland on a short week after playing on Monday in Week 7, also putting the Ravens in a second of B2B and a third road game in a four-week squeeze.
Hanging with Mr. Cooper
- Awards
- TDs
- Yards
| To win MVP | +30000 |
| To win AWARD | +10000 |
| To lead NFL in receiving TD | +5000 |
| To lead NFL in receiving yards | +4000 |
BACK TO TOP
| Over 5.5 receiving TD | +105 |
| Under 5.5 receiving TD | -125 |
| 7+ receiving TD | +150 |
| 10+ receiving TD | +1200 |
BACK TO TOP
| Over 950.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| Under 950.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| 1,000+ receiving yards | +115 |
| 1,250+ receiving yards | +370 |
BACK TO TOP
Best prop: Over 65.5 Receptions (-110)
Amari Cooper has caught more than 70 balls in his two seasons in Cleveland despite six different quarterbacks making those throws. He’s a rare breed of receiver who continues to play at a high level regardless of the quality of QB.
Chubb’s unknown status and Dorsey’s offense will up the amount of pass attempts from Watson (or Jameis Winston, Tyler Huntley, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, etc.) and Cooper is still the top option. Along with his place in the playbook, Cooper is also durable and has played at least 15 games for six straight seasons.
Player projections aren’t overwhelming in favor of the Over 65.5 receptions but they do come in above that total and Cooper has proved to be a WR you can trust, despite sub-par passers in Cleveland.
Cleveland Browns trend: Divisional road games
The AFC North is relentless, regardless of how teams are expected to do in a given season. Cleveland knows this very well, especially when visiting those divisional rivals.
The Browns have won only five divisional road games since 2016 (5-19 SU) in the regular season, burning bettors with a 7-16-1 ATS record in those outings. Granted, Cleveland really sucked for a good chunk of those clashes. But even in recent years, the Browns are 3-9 SU and ATS when visiting AFC North opponents under Kevin Stefanski (since 2020).
All three AFC North trips happen in the final five games of 2024.
Cleveland Browns’ divisional road games
- Week 14 @ Pittsburgh (+1)
- Week 16 @ Cincinnati (+3.5)
- Week 18 @ Baltimore (+4.5)
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Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.
Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.
He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.
On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.
His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”
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